I’ve finally figured out for myself how I should be looking for new app ideas. And why uniqueness is more likely to hurt than help.

Hey everyone, Ivan here.

I haven’t written anything here for a couple of months. Lots of work, new projects, not much time, and honestly, I didn’t really know what to write about.

But before we get started:

My good X friend Filip Kowalski, who helped me build my first audience on X back in the day, which is always incredibly hard at the beginning, has launched his own email newsletter about the app business.

Highly recommend subscribing if you want to stay up to date with what’s happening in the market.

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Now, let’s get to it.

I made a pretty simple list of questions for myself, and now I use it to check any new idea.

If yes, I skip it.

Let’s be honest. 99% of people can’t come up with anything truly unique. And you’re probably not going to be the next Elon Musk.

Sad, of course, but it is what it is.

And you don’t need to be.

I feel much more comfortable entering a market where there are already tons of similar products and people have long proven that they’re willing to pay for them.

If not, I skip it.

Indie developers constantly try to solve problems that don’t have a big enough audience.

First, you need a big market with a lot of demand. Only then can you start looking for specific segments within it (and those segments still need to be big enough).

I just need a high enough ceiling so that if things work, there’s still plenty of room to grow.

If not, I skip it.

I want to see products in the market making at least around $1M a month.

I need proof that you can build a big business here.

If those products don’t exist, I start asking questions.

Maybe the market is too small.

Maybe the economics don’t work.

Maybe acquiring users is extremely difficult.

Or maybe the problem simply isn’t painful enough for people to pay real money to solve it.

I’m much more comfortable when there are already several big players I can watch and copy some things from.

If not, I skip it.

Everyone is afraid their idea isn’t unique and someone will steal it.

I’m more afraid that nobody will need the product at all.

I like markets with a lot of money, a lot of users, and a lot of competitors.

If the market is supposedly huge and there’s a lot of money in it, but for some reason there are almost no competitors – that’s a red flag for me.

There’s probably a reason nobody is going there.

Maybe the product is extremely difficult to build.

Maybe the barrier to entry is huge.

Maybe the economics only look good from the outside.

If something still doesn’t exist even though the market looks obvious, there’s a 90% chance you simply can’t build a sustainable business there.

If yes, I skip it.

There will be leaders in almost every big market. That’s normal.

I don’t like markets where 1–2 companies dominate the whole category.

If someone needs a product in category X and almost automatically goes to one particular service, entering that market becomes much less interesting.

I prefer fragmented markets.

Markets with dozens or hundreds of products.

Where companies make good money, but no single company has captured all the demand and user attention.

So my ideal market looks something like this:

Several or even dozens of companies with significant revenue.

But no single brand that has become synonymous with the entire category.

If not, I skip it.

And this is probably one of the most important points for me.

I want to understand distribution before I even start seriously thinking about the product itself.

It’s not enough for me to know that the app can be built.

I want to know where I’m going to get users from.

It doesn’t have to be Meta Ads.

It could be a clear flow in Apple Ads.

It could be in-app networks like AppLovin, Unity, Mintegral, or Moloco.

It could be Google Ads – App Campaigns or regular web campaigns.

TikTok Ads? Also fine.

Ideally, I know specific competitors and roughly understand which channels they use to buy traffic and make the economics work.

That gives me several important confirmations:

Organic is great too.

TikTok, X, Reddit, SEO – all of these can bring a lot of users and help massively at the beginning.

But I don’t want to build a business that completely depends on whether the next video goes viral or not.

I’m much more interested in a situation where I can put in, say, $10k, understand the economics, and then try putting in $100k.

A few more things that are a plus for me:

That’s basically how I look at new app ideas now.

I don’t care that much if the idea is unique. I care if the market is big, proven, competitive, and if I understand how to get users.

If you have ideas for future issues, just reply to this email. I read everything.

See you next week,
Ivan.